Two teams in limbo
It's been years since the outcome of the Formula 1 world championship has been so uncertain, both in the battle for the title itself and throughout the field. With four rounds to go, eight teams still have something to fight for – three for the Constructors' crown and five for places six to ten in the standings. However, Mercedes and Aston Martin find themselves at this point in the season in a state of limbo.
The three-pointed star squad is fourth and still has a mathematical chance of winning the championship, but not in the real world, as they trail the leading team by 200 points when there are 206 on the table. As for its drivers, Lewis Hamilton and George Russell, they have just a slim chance of improving on their respective sixth and seventh places in the Drivers' rankings. In fifth place, Carlos Sainz is 51 points ahead of Hamilton and 63 ahead of Russell. What could they do between now and the Abu Dhabi finale? Well, with 12 points currently separating them, they can settle the matter of who will be the highest placed Mercedes driver, something they clearly care about given the way they fought each other yesterday in Mexico City. It could go either way and of course there are still some wins up for grabs to add to the current total of three this season, along with two pole positions and seven podium finishes: not bad for a midfield team, but hardly enough for the team that was dominant from 2014 to 2021.
Even more set in stone is the position of Aston Martin, which since the start of the year has raced behind the top four and ahead of the remaining five teams, both in terms of points scored and level of competitiveness. In 2024, the team owned by Lawrence Stroll got more column inches for its engineer shopping spree, tempting away Ferrari's technical director, Enrico Cardile as well as the man at the top of every team principal's shopping list, Adrian Newey, than it did from its on-track performance. So far, it's best result of the season is Fernando Alonso's fifth place in Jeddah, the second race of the year and its performance has been in decline since then, to the extent that, since the summer break, Aston Martin has picked up a mere 13 points, the same number as Williams and six fewer than Haas. Its fifth place seems secure, given that its lead over the sixth placed American (by racing license at least) team is 40 points (86 to 46) especially as the top four teams tend to only leave crumbs on the table for the others. However, it would be good in terms of motivation, if it were able to show some signs of recovery in the few races remaining.
After an exceptional start to the 2023 season when it was the second force in the field, even if at a considerable distance off the leader Red Bull, Aston has slowly but inexorably slipped down the order towards the midfield, a position that definitely does not match the grand ambitions of its boss and his continued investment in the team, not just in terms of human resources, but also when it comes to infrastructure. The green team's only highpoint in Mexico City came courtesy of Fernando Alonso who, as always, demonstrated incredible determination on the weekend he reached the amazing milestone of his 400th Grand Prix: sadly it ended in retirement after just a handful of laps, because of brake problems
