Never two without three?
For the third year in a row, Max Verstappen will not be able to enjoy the benefits of being quickest on track in qualifying at Spa-Francorchamps. As was already the case in 2022 and 2023, the Dutchman was comfortably fastest but he has to take a grid place penalty. It's through no fault of his own, as it's down to the fact that he will exceeding the permitted number of some mechanical components on his Red Bull car.
Despite that handicap, Max still managed to win here for the past two years. Last year, he had a five place penalty after changing the gearbox, but in a season where he had already won nine of the eleven Grands Prix up to that point, it hardly seemed much of a handicap. On paper, life looked harder in 2022 as he had to start from 14th on the grid.
Tomorrow's penalty for the three time world champion fits somewhere between the last two, as he takes a ten place drop, putting him eleventh on the grid.
So, can we expect him to win from there? To be honest it won't be straightforward, because from what we've seen in Friday's two free practice sessions, McLaren look very quick and Ferrari seem quite handy too. It's true that Norris is starting from fourth and Piastri from fifth, but their pace looked very competitive, while Leclerc will be hoping to make the most of starting from the pole position he has inherited before using the potency of his Maranello power unit to keep his rivals at bay.
There will be two key factors: the level of aero downforce set before qualifying and in this instance, McLaren has clearly stated it sacrificed a bit of downforce today to have more speed tomorrow, with the second important aspect being tyre degradation. In this respect, it's worth noting that Max and his team-mate Perez, only have one set of Hards available, while their main rivals, the pairings at McLaren, Mercedes and Ferrari, have two. In free practice, the C2 proved to be the strongest compound, especially resistant to graining caused by the track having been recently resurfaced, which is generating more grip than last year.
In Max's favour is the speed of his car, as also demonstrated by Perez finally being back on form in qualifying, as well as his desire to answer those who criticised his petulant attitude in the cockpit in Budapest. Max knows the best way to silence them is with action, specifically overtaking other cars. It's not as though Spa has been the only scene of his comebacks, if one thinks back to the Hungaroring in 2022 when he went from tenth to first, or in Jeddah in 2023 when he started 15th and finished second, or what about 21st to second as seen in Sochi in 2021. One would wise therefore not to write him off for tomorrow.
NB. On all three occasions when Verstappen has been penalised at Spa, it's a Ferrari driver who has seen the benefit: in 2022 it was Carlos Sainz, and last year and today it was Charles Leclerc. On those past occasions, the Ferrari men were unable to convert their starting position into a win, finishing third on the podium. One can assume they're touching wood in Maranello and hoping it's a case of third time lucky…
For the third year in a row, Max Verstappen will not be able to enjoy the benefits of being quickest on track in qualifying at Spa-Francorchamps. As was already the case in 2022 and 2023, the Dutchman was comfortably fastest but he has to take a grid place penalty. It's through no fault of his own, as it's down to the fact that he will exceeding the permitted number of some mechanical components on his Red Bull car.
Despite that handicap, Max still managed to win here for the past two years. Last year, he had a five place penalty after changing the gearbox, but in a season where he had already won nine of the eleven Grands Prix up to that point, it hardly seemed much of a handicap. On paper, life looked harder in 2022 as he had to start from 14th on the grid.
Tomorrow's penalty for the three time world champion fits somewhere between the last two, as he takes a ten place drop, putting him eleventh on the grid.
So, can we expect him to win from there? To be honest it won't be straightforward, because from what we've seen in Friday's two free practice sessions, McLaren look very quick and Ferrari seem quite handy too. It's true that Norris is starting from fourth and Piastri from fifth, but their pace looked very competitive, while Leclerc will be hoping to make the most of starting from the pole position he has inherited before using the potency of his Maranello power unit to keep his rivals at bay. There will be two key factors: the level of aero downforce set before qualifying and in this instance, McLaren has clearly stated it sacrificed a bit of downforce today to have more speed tomorrow, with the second important aspect being tyre degradation. In this respect, it's worth noting that Max and his team-mate Perez, only have one set of Hards available, while their main rivals, the pairings at McLaren, Mercedes and Ferrari, have two. In free practice, the C2 proved to be the strongest compound, especially resistant to graining caused by the track having been recently resurfaced, which is generating more grip than last year.
In Max's favour is the speed of his car, as also demonstrated by Perez finally being back on form in qualifying, as well as his desire to answer those who criticised his petulant attitude in the cockpit in Budapest. Max knows the best way to silence them is with action, specifically overtaking other cars. It's not as though Spa has been the only scene of his comebacks, if one thinks back to the Hungaroring in 2022 when he went from tenth to first, or in Jeddah in 2023 when he started 15th and finished second, or what about 21st to second as seen in Sochi in 2021. One would wise therefore not to write him off for tomorrow.
NB. On all three occasions when Verstappen has been penalised at Spa, it's a Ferrari driver who has seen the benefit: in 2022 it was Carlos Sainz, and last year and today it was Charles Leclerc. On those past occasions, the Ferrari men were unable to convert their starting position into a win, finishing third on the podium. One can assume they're touching wood in Maranello and hoping it's a case of third time lucky…
